Programme Overview
Boards are now operating in what the IMF calls an era of geoeconomic fragmentation, a policy-driven reversal of decades of growing integration. In its analysis, the IMF estimates that, depending on how deep fragmentation becomes, global output losses could range from 0.2% of GDP in limited scenarios to as much as 7% in severe fragmentation, and up to 8–12% for some countries if technological decoupling accompanies trade splits (IMF). At the same time, the ECB and regional bodies warn that trade and capital flows are increasingly reorienting along geopolitical lines, reshaping the economic prospects of regions like ASEAN+3 and the euro area.
This realignment is already visible in trade and supply chains. China’s share in US imports fell by around 8 percentage points between 2017 and 2023, while the US share in China’s exports dropped by roughly 4 points over the same period as tensions and tariffs escalated. In electronics and semiconductors, geopolitical rivalry and export controls have turned the sector into an epicentre of fragmentation: China’s share of US electronics imports dropped from 52% in 2018 to 37% in 2022, while ASEAN’s share rose from 17% to 26% as production re-routes through “friend-shoring” hubs. Meanwhile, conflicts, sanctions and regional flashpoints, from the Russia–Ukraine war to disruptions in the Red Sea, have driven renewed spikes in freight costs and forced costly vessel rerouting, underlining how quickly geopolitical events can cascade into margin pressure and delivery risk.
For export-oriented and state-linked enterprises, this environment is no longer a “macro backdrop” but a board-level strategic and fiduciary concern. S&P and other risk houses now explicitly list geopolitical risk among the top drivers of global supply chain and inflation outcomes. Leading advisory work emphasises that building resilience requires not just footprint shifts and supplier diversification, but embedding geopolitical intelligence, scenario planning and supply chain stress-testing into the core of corporate strategy and leadership development. Boards that ignore these dynamics risk stranded assets, stranded supply chains and stranded strategies.
Geopolitics, Fragmentation & Supply Chains: Boardroom Strategy in a Multi-Polar World is an advanced geo-strategy lab for Chairs, SIDs and seasoned directors. It moves beyond generic “political risk briefings” to focus on how boards interrogate and steer strategy under competing blocs, export controls, sanctions regimes and regional trade realignments. Through data-rich framing, live geopolitical scenarios, supply-chain and portfolio stress tests, and a fireside dialogue with a geopolitical strategist and a global institutional investor, participants will explore how to make genuinely board-level decisions in a world where routes to markets, capital and technology can shift overnight.
Who Should Attend
Board Chairs & Vice-Chairs
Senior Independent Directors (SIDs)
Board Committee Chairs (Audit, Risk, Investment, Sustainability/ESG, NRC)
Experienced Non-Executive Directors of PLCs, GLIC/GLC boards and large private / state-linked entities
Learning Outcomes
By the end of this 1-day programme, participants will be able to:
Understand the Strategic Consequences of Fragmentation
Interpret key trends in trade, investment and technology decoupling, and translate them into board-level questions on growth, risk and capital allocation.
Assess Exposure to Geopolitical, Sanctions & National-Security Risk
Map how their organisations’ supply chains, customers, financing and data flows intersect with geopolitical fault lines and regulatory regimes.
Stress-Test Strategy & Supply Chains Under Multiple Scenarios
Use structured scenarios to examine how shocks—tariffs, export controls, conflict, sanctions, cyber events—could reshape revenue, cost and resilience profiles.
Guide Management on Resilience Options Without Overstepping
Distinguish between board decisions (risk appetite, strategic posture, thresholds) and management execution (operational rerouting, redundancy build-out).
Engage Investors & Stakeholders on Geopolitical Risk
Understand how macro and sovereign risk is priced by global investors, and how boards can credibly communicate their approach to resilience and adaptation.
